MargusMargus Research · Original data
How often do betting favorites win?
Across 671 final NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL games with pregame moneylines (September 27, 2026 to November 14, 2026), favorites won 65.6% against an average implied chance of 62.8%.
How Often Do Favorites Win? 2026 Data From 671 Games
Key findings
Moneyline favorites won 440 of 671 final games (65.6%); the odds gave them an average 62.8% chance, so they won 2.8 points more often than the odds implied.
Link to this findingFavorites the odds gave at least a 70% chance won 115 of 137 games (83.9%), losing 22 times (16.1%).
Link to this findingIn near coin-flips (favorite under a 55% chance), the favorite won 68 of 146 games (46.6%), 6.2 points less often than the odds implied.
Link to this findingHome and road favorites won about equally often: 65.9% of 413 home favorites and 65.1% of 258 road favorites.
Link to this findingFavorites won most often in the NBA (69.0% of 242 games) and least often in MLB (61.9% of 42).
Link to this finding
Calibration: implied chance against actual win rate
Bands of the favorite's no-vig chance. Bands with fewer than 20 games are left out.
| Favorite chance | Games | Favorite won | Win rate | Average implied chance | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% to 55% | 146 | 68 | 46.6% | 52.8% | -6.2 pts |
| 55% to 60% | 169 | 105 | 62.1% | 57.5% | +4.6 pts |
| 60% to 65% | 128 | 87 | 68.0% | 62.3% | +5.7 pts |
| 65% to 70% | 91 | 65 | 71.4% | 67.1% | +4.3 pts |
| 70% to 80% | 94 | 76 | 80.9% | 74.3% | +6.6 pts |
| 80% or more | 43 | 39 | 90.7% | 84.3% | +6.4 pts |
Favorites by league
Leagues with at least 20 games.
| League | Games | Favorite won | Win rate | Average implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 99 | 66 | 66.7% | 65.6% |
| NBA | 242 | 167 | 69.0% | 66.5% |
| MLB | 42 | 26 | 61.9% | 57.6% |
| NHL | 288 | 181 | 62.8% | 59.4% |
Methodology
- Source: the last full-game moneyline each book posted before the scheduled start, from prices Margus collects directly, and final scores from the league data feeds.
- Each book's two prices are turned into no-vig chances (each side's implied probability divided by their sum). The game's favorite is the side with the higher median chance across the books that priced it.
- Excluded: 614 soccer games (three-way markets with draws), 767 games without a final score yet, 0 games with no complete two-way price, 41 pick'em games (within 1 point of 50%), and 1 tie.
- Bands with fewer than 20 games are not shown. Shares are rounded to one decimal place.
- Prices start in late September 2026, when Margus began storing price history, so this study grows with every game. It is recomputed once a day.
Suggested citation
Margus Research, "How Often Do Favorites Win? 2026 Data From 671 Games", https://margus.app/research/betting-favorites (November 2026).
Also available as markdown. Every number on this page comes from one calculation that the markdown version, the FAQ and llms.txt also use.
Frequently asked questions
How often do betting favorites win?
Moneyline favorites won 440 of 671 final games (65.6%); the odds gave them an average 62.8% chance, so they won 2.8 points more often than the odds implied. The favorite is the side with the higher no-vig chance in the median book's last pregame moneyline.
How often do big favorites lose?
Favorites the odds gave at least a 70% chance won 115 of 137 games (83.9%), losing 22 times (16.1%).
Are betting odds accurate?
Close to it, in Margus's count. Moneyline favorites won 440 of 671 final games (65.6%); the odds gave them an average 62.8% chance, so they won 2.8 points more often than the odds implied. The calibration table on this page compares the chance the odds implied with how often favorites actually won, band by band.
More original data