MargusOriginal data
Sportsbook arbs that held up
Every cross-book arbitrage Margus's detector flagged on pregame lines, how many were still there when it re-read both prices 30 seconds later, and why the rest failed. Most arbs on odds screens are a stale price, not free money.
Last 7 days
How many arbs were real
2
Cross-book price sets that added up to an arb on the board.
1
50.0% had fresh prices, the same line on both sides, a pregame game and a 1%+ return.
0
0.0% of everything flagged survived a second read of both prices.
Confirmed
Arbs still there 30 seconds later
None this week: every arb the detector flagged had moved or gone stale within 30 seconds.
Failures
Why flagged arbs failed
| Reason | Candidates | Share of flagged |
|---|---|---|
| 30 seconds later: a price was older than the freshness limit | 1 | 50.0% |
| Return below the 1% minimum | 1 | 50.0% |
A candidate can fail for more than one reason. Return is on the total stake, at the prices listed. See the sportsbook odds study for how often books disagree.
Frequently asked questions
What is a sportsbook arbitrage (arb)?
Backing every outcome of a game at different books whose prices, taken together, return more than the total stake. It happens when two books disagree enough on a game that the best price on each side adds up to under 100% implied probability.
Why do most arbs disappear?
Usually one book's price is out of date: the other books have already moved, and the stale price is gone (or limited) by the time you try to bet it. That is why Margus re-reads every leg 30 seconds after flagging an arb and only lists the ones still there.
Does a confirmed arb mean I can bet it now?
No. This is a log of what Margus saw, not a live feed. Prices move in seconds, and books can limit stakes or void bets on obvious errors. Always confirm both prices on the books before placing anything. The live board on Margus highlights arbs as they appear.
Which books does the log cover?
The sportsbooks on the Margus board (DraftKings, BetRivers and theScore Bet), on pregame moneylines, spreads and totals for games up to three days out. Prediction markets are not in the detector yet.