# Sportsbook Odds Comparison 2026: 2,093 Games, 8 Books

> Margus compared the last pregame moneyline at 8 sportsbooks and prediction markets on 2,093 games (September 27, 2026 to November 14, 2026): sportsbooks' median two-way moneyline margin was 4.4% and prediction markets' was 4.3% after fees, and ProphetX had the best price most often (77.0% of sides).

Canonical: https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds
Last updated: 2026-11-14

## Key findings

- The median two-way moneyline at a sportsbook carried a 4.4% margin (2,616 markets); at prediction markets it was 4.3% after taker fees (1.0% on listed prices, 3,369 markets), about the same as sportsbooks. ([link](https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds#sportsbook-vs-prediction-market-margin))
- Of the 8 books with at least 20 priced games, ProphetX had the lowest median moneyline margin (0.9%) and Polymarket US the highest (5.7% after fees). ([link](https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds#lowest-and-highest-margin-book))
- ProphetX had the best moneyline price (or tied for it) on 619 of the 804 sides it priced alongside another book (77.0%), the most of any book studied. ([link](https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds#most-often-best-price))
- Books disagreed on the price on 4,705 of 4,713 game sides that at least two books priced (99.8%); on the median side, the best and worst prices were 2.1 points of implied probability apart. ([link](https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds#books-disagree-on-price))
- Soccer's three-way moneyline (home, draw, away) carried a median 6.7% margin at sportsbooks across 1,589 markets, against 4.4% for two-way moneylines. ([link](https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds#soccer-three-way-margin))
- Of 1,589 apparent moneyline, spread and total arbitrage opportunities Margus's detector flagged between October 18, 2026 and November 13, 2026, 2 (0.1%) passed every check and 1 still held when re-checked; 1,576 (99.2%) relied on at least one stale price. ([link](https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds#arbitrage-candidates-that-were-real))

## Moneyline margin and best-price share by book

Books with at least 20 complete pregame moneyline markets. Lower margin is better for the bettor. Best-price share counts sides the book priced alongside at least one other book, ties included.

| Book | Type | Markets | Median margin (listed) | Median margin after fees | Best price or tied | Sides compared |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ProphetX | Prediction market | 373 | 0.9% | same as listed | 77.0% | 804 |
| Predict.fun | Prediction market | 178 | 2.6% | same as listed | 15.6% | 378 |
| DraftKings | Sportsbook | 1,155 | 4.3% | same as listed | 28.3% | 2,811 |
| Kalshi | Prediction market | 1,968 | 1.0% | 4.3% | 35.5% | 4,455 |
| BetMGM | Sportsbook | 107 | 4.4% | same as listed | 33.2% | 214 |
| theScore Bet | Sportsbook | 1,623 | 5.1% | same as listed | 28.6% | 3,763 |
| BetRivers | Sportsbook | 1,320 | 5.5% | same as listed | 19.6% | 3,160 |
| Polymarket US | Prediction market | 1,961 | 1.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 4,399 |

## Why apparent arbitrage opportunities failed

One candidate can fail several checks, so the shares add up to more than 100%.

| Check failed | Candidates | Share |
| --- | --- | --- |
| A price was older than the freshness limit | 1,576 | 99.2% |
| The legs were observed too far apart in time | 1,575 | 99.1% |
| Both legs were at the same book | 456 | 28.7% |
| Return too large to be real (a likely data error) | 263 | 16.6% |
| Return below the minimum after fees | 131 | 8.2% |
| A leg was a live (in-game) price | 25 | 1.6% |
| The legs had different lines | 1 | 0.1% |
| A price went stale before the re-check | 1 | 0.1% |

## Methodology

- Source: prices Margus collects directly from each book's public odds feed. For every game and book, the study takes the last full-game moneyline observed before the scheduled start.
- Margin is the sum of the implied probabilities of all outcomes minus 100%: two outcomes in most sports, three (home, draw, away) in soccer.
- Kalshi and Polymarket add a taker fee to the listed price (7% × p × (1 − p) per contract). "After fees" uses the price a bettor really pays. Predict.fun quotes include its fee; ProphetX prices are used as listed.
- Excluded: 18 markets missing a side, 10 markets whose implied probabilities add up below 99.5% or above 125% (a stale or mismatched side), 0 duplicate prices, and books with fewer than 20 complete markets.
- The best price on a side is the highest payout after fees among books with a complete market for that game. Ties count for every tied book.
- Arbitrage figures come from the log of Margus's arbitrage detector, using the checks it applied at the time each candidate was flagged.
- Shares and margins are rounded to one decimal place. The study is recomputed once a day.

## Suggested citation

Margus Research, "Sportsbook Odds Comparison 2026: 2,093 Games, 8 Books", https://margus.app/research/sportsbook-odds (November 2026).

## FAQ

### Which sportsbook has the best odds?

ProphetX had the best moneyline price (or tied for it) on 619 of the 804 sides it priced alongside another book (77.0%), the most of any book studied. Of the 8 books with at least 20 priced games, ProphetX had the lowest median moneyline margin (0.9%) and Polymarket US the highest (5.7% after fees). No book is best on every game, which is why comparing prices before each bet matters more than picking one book.

### How much vig do sportsbooks charge on moneylines?

In Margus's pregame prices, the median two-way moneyline at a sportsbook had a 4.4% margin: the amount the two sides' implied probabilities add up to above 100%. A standard -110/-110 market is a 4.8% margin.

### Do prediction markets have better odds than sportsbooks?

The median two-way moneyline at a sportsbook carried a 4.4% margin (2,616 markets); at prediction markets it was 4.3% after taker fees (1.0% on listed prices, 3,369 markets), about the same as sportsbooks. Kalshi and Polymarket charge a taker fee on top of the listed price, so their listed prices look cheaper than what a bettor actually pays.

### Are sports betting arbitrage opportunities real?

Rarely. Of 1,589 apparent moneyline, spread and total arbitrage opportunities Margus's detector flagged between October 18, 2026 and November 13, 2026, 2 (0.1%) passed every check and 1 still held when re-checked; 1,576 (99.2%) relied on at least one stale price. Most apparent arbs come from one book's price being out of date.

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